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Number of Public School Students by Size of House 12/26/02

Jefferson County, WV in 2002

Single Family Detached Homes, Built 1983-2002

Size of House, in Square Feet of Finished Space	Average Public School Students per House	Average Public School Students per Thousand Square Feet		Sample Size
1750 or more	.778	.31		243
1500-1749	.756	.47	.47	41
1250-1499	.613	.45		31
1000-1249	.586	.51		29
under 1000	.375	.43		8

Source: Random digit phone survey by Brown & Horner for Jefferson County Public Schools, conducted in November 2002. ADetached@ means home is not attached to another home, like a townhouse. If the home is attached to a garage, it is still considered Adetached@ from other homes.

Comments on Size of House

Among small houses, under 1750 square feet, the average number of students per house rises with size of house. Above that level, the number of students does not continue to rise, and averages .778 students per house. This ratio is derived by noting that the database has 189 students in the 243 larger houses (with 1750 square feet or more) for a ratio of .778. There are variations, but no overall pattern, as size increases beyond 1750.

The column showing students per thousand square feet is based on all students in each row, divided by the total square feet of the houses in each row. For example the last row has 3 students in 8 houses with a total of 6910 square feet, or .43 students per thousand square feet.

Comments on Time Frame

The analysis focuses on the last 20 years of construction as the best way to estimate patterns in the next 20 years of construction. While the market is always changing, the recent past, where the county has been integrating with the Washington metropolitan area, is certainly a better guide to the future than the more distant past, when the county was more independent.

The analysis is not restricted to an even more recent past, such as 5 or 10 years, because students flow through the housing stock over a substantial period of time, so a very short period might measure a peak or dip in students that would not last. In fact measuring the current situation in houses whose construction was spread over the last 20 years is a way to estimate the average situation over 20 years in new houses, except of course for market changes.

It may be noted that (a) the number of students in a home certainly changes over time, (b) if there is a brief peak in the number of public school students, public schools would serve the peak with temporary, not permanent, classrooms, and (c) schools do have to build permanent classrooms for a long term need, such as 20 years.

Comments on Neighbors= Data

The table below does not concern Jefferson County, but shows a roughly similar pattern for the outer suburbs of Washington, DC, as a group. The number of children per house again has a tendency to rise with size of house. Note the exception for houses from 1250 to 1499 square feet, where the sample size is quite small.

Outer Suburbs of Washington DC in 1998

Single Family Detached Homes, Built 1980-1998

Size of House, in Square Feet of Finished Space	Average Public School Children 5-18 per House	Average Public School Children 5-18 per Thousand Square Feet		Sample Size
1750 or more	.790	.31		246
1500-1749	.765	.48	.48	23
1250-1499	.962	.70		10
1000-1249	.623	.59		16
under 1000	0	0		8

Source: Computer file of individual interviews of the AAmerican Housing Survey for the Washington Metropolitan Area in 1998,@ conducted by US Census Bureau in March-November1998, www.huduser.org

Note 1: AOuter Suburbs@ includes the following counties & independent cities:

Note 2. Data are for a different time period from the Jefferson County data, as well as a different area, and are identified by age of child, rather than school grade. Three quarters of 18 year-olds are included, to approximate 12^th graders and students who repeat. The survey finds whether children attend public and/or private schools for the household as a whole, rather than individually. In the few households using both public and private schools, half the children are assumed to be in public school.

Townhouses and Duplexes

The Outer Suburbs also have enough data on single family attached homes to analyze, which the Jefferson County data do not. ASingle family attached@ homes include townhouses and side-by-side duplexes. Again the number of children rises with home size. The number of children is consistently lower than in similar-sized single family detached homes.

Outer Suburbs of Washington DC in 1998

Single Family Attached Homes, Built 1980-1998

Size of House, in Square Feet of Finished Space	Average Public School Children 5-18 per House	Average Public School Children 5-18 per Thousand Square Feet		Sample Size
1750 or more	.560	.26		46
1500-1749	.405	.26	.27	20
1250-1499	.394	.29		20
1000-1249	.226	.20		14
under 1000	.224	.33		9

Source and Notes: Same as previous table